apc

There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.

This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.

I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.

The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.

During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.

This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC - option chain) stock is trading lower today the company said a well off the coast of the Ivory Coast revealed no hydrocarbons. APC had drilled to a total depth of approximately 14,900 feet in about 6,100 feet of water. Even a lift in crude oil prices to another year high is not enough to keep APC from falling 5% on this news. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on APC.

This morning, APC opened at $65.58. So far today the stock has hit a high of $67.20 and a low of $64.85. As of 11:45, APC is trading at $65.62, down $3.74 (-5.4%). The chart for APC looks neutral and S&P gives APC a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Yesterday my 2009 portfolio closed up 201% for the year. It has been an interesting journey, and while it is rather self congratulatory to discuss it, there are lessons to be learned.

Before I review some of the reasons I was able to do this I want to make it clear that I do not think this can be easily repeated; I look at the portfolio every day thinking this is too good to be true, and we all know what that usually means.

There are analysts and oil gurus who argue that $30 per barrel oil is possible if the U.S./global economic recoveries stall.

$30 oil? Don't count on it, which is why I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), first recommended on May 14, 2009 at a price of $43.55.

Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) closed at $11.74. YGE is scheduled to report Q2 EPS today. YGE August 12 straddle is priced at $1.65, September 12 straddle is priced at $2.90. YGE September option implied volatility of 100 is above its 26-week average of 91, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) closed at $50.46. Crude oil futures are recently up 0.61% to $68.70 according to Bloomberg. APC September option implied volatility is at 40, November is at 41; below its 26-week average of 51, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Options Update: Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you wait for market conditions to reach perfection, you'll be waiting a long time.

You know what? I am going to wait until I am sure housing has turned before I buy the homebuilders like Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take). I am going to wait until the foreclosures peak before I buy Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take).

I am going to wait until unemployment goes down before I buy 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) and Disney (NYSE: DIS) (Cramer's Take) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer's Take) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take).

In a race, when the yellow caution flag is out drivers are prohibited from advancing their position, and are subject to penalty.

In the stock market no such rule applies. When the caution flag goes up it is a sign you may be nearing an opportunity to advance your position, and it would be foolish not to do so. I think the market has definitely had the caution flag up the last two weeks as we enter earnings season.

I have written several articles regarding watch-lists encouraging our readers to be prepared for buying opportunities, and as I look at my watch-list it appears that many stocks are nearing prices that would make it attractive to add to my position.

Yesterday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch decided to up its rating on Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to "buy" from "neutral" and raised the company's price target to $57 per share from $52 per share. The main reason for the upgrade was the company's success in raising $1.3 billion in a stock offering.

In my opinion, this is a rather bold move, mainly based on the target price for the stock. Perhaps the company does have a solid balance sheet, but it also faces some rather staunch resistance. The stock is hovering in the $41 region and is positioned beneath its 10-, 20-, and 50-unit weekly and monthly moving averages.

The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.

The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.

Some of you may have heard this before if you have been in the stock market for a long time: The cheapest place to find oil is on the floor of the New York Stock exchange!

With the price of oil moving up faster than the price of oil stocks, and the high cost of exploration and developing new sources, I have been surprised that there have not been any mergers or acquisitions by the major oil companies. I would think now would be a good time to add to their proven reserves with far less risk than looking for new sources.

It also seems to me that the risks associated with exploration and developing new product would be easier to absorb by larger entities.

Why does the market just go straight down whenever the oil futures go lower? TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says.

A market driven by the price of oil -- good when it goes up and bad when it goes down -- is way too binary to profit from. Yet that's where we find ourselves and it is so counterintuitive as to be unnerving.

I think the fact that oil is struggling and failing to take out $60 is a good sign. The purchasing power of Americans is dependent upon jobs, expenses, psyche, interest rates and the stock market. We know that the stock market isn't our friend or our enemy, interest rates are still our friend, jobs are awful, and psyche seems like a push because the love for President Obama is still in the air.

Most investors know that it's an energy-intensive world, and even though the U.S. and global recessions have led to real declines in aggregate energy usage, don't look for that trend to continue.

Further, the Obama administration's admirable goal to create a more self-reliant, energy-independent nation and the impact of efforts to first limit, then eliminate global warming from fossil fuels opens the door to alternative energy source development.

But, as Saudi Arabia reminds us and the world, barring a breakthrough technology, fossil fuels will remain a major energy source for at least the next thirty to fifty years. In other words, the reign of oil has merely paused, not ended, which is why it's prudent to review Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC).

Never mind the bears and bulls or even the pigs and chickens, I think between Wall Street and Washington D.C. the goofs and ghosts are leading the charge.

What I mean by this is that the rationale for certain market activity and advisement makes no sense to me. Maybe we are not recovering from the recession but we are moving into something like a shadow economy, where people look at what is going on in the market and rationalize it after the fact, when all the real energy is in the darkness.

Today American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, and Lazard Capital Markets upgraded AEO from hold to buy. Why now, after the stock has run up 65% this year, do they finally wake up and think there might be something here?

After a nine-week stock market rally it is time to tally up the winners and losers. In a market where almost everything gained, there must eventually be separation between those that went with the flow and those that had something to show.

The financial stocks, with the help of the government, were able to show some positive earnings. The banks do raise the suspicion that this is a case of "managing the numbers".
The government has helped them along by "reshaping" some accounting rules and giving them advance warning (and leaking to the public) of the results of its stress testing. Until now, they have gone with the flow as the hardest hit stocks and rallied the most.